GARPENBERG, Sweden — From inside the control room carved into the rock more than half a mile underground, Mika Persson can see the robots on the march, supposedly coming for his job here at the New Boliden mine.

瑞典加爾彭貝裡——從離地面逾半英里（約合800米）的岩石中鑿出來的控制室裡，米卡·佩爾松(Mika Persson)能看到機械人正在行進。它們據說是來取代他在新博利登礦(New Boliden)的工作。

He’s fine with it.

他對此沒有意見。

Sweden’s famously generous social welfare system makes this a place not prone to fretting about automation — or much else, for that matter.

瑞典的社會福利制度出了名的慷慨，這使得這裡的人不大因為自動化而發愁。其他很多東西也一樣。

Persson, 35, sits in front of four computer screens, one displaying the loader he steers as it lifts freshly blasted rock containing silver, zinc and lead. If he were down in the mine shaft operating the loader manually, he would be inhaling dust and exhaust fumes. Instead, he reclines in an office chair while using a joystick to control the machine.

35歲的佩爾松坐在四個電腦螢幕前。其中一個顯示的是他操作的那台裝載機舉起剛被炸開的含銀、鋅和鉛的岩石的畫面。如果下到礦井裡手工操作裝載機，他會吸入灰塵和廢氣。但現在，他靠在辦公椅上，用操縱桿控制著機器。

瑞典加爾彭貝裡新博利登礦場的一名遠程操控員。
瑞典加爾彭貝裡新博利登礦場的一名遠程操控員。 Linus Sundahl-Djerf for The New York Times

He is cognizant that robots are evolving by the day. Boliden is testing self-driving vehicles to replace truck drivers. But Persson assumes people will always be needed to keep the machines running. He has faith in the Swedish economic model and its protections against the torment of joblessness.

他知道，機械人每天都在進化。博利登正在測試取代卡車司機的自動駕駛汽車。但佩爾松認為，總得有人保持機器運轉。他對瑞典的經濟模式和它讓勞動者免受失業之苦的保護措施有信心。

“I’m not really worried,” he says. “There are so many jobs in this mine that even if this job disappears, they will have another one. The company will take care of us.”

「我其實不擔心，」他說。「礦上有很多工作，即使這個崗位消失了，他們還會設立新崗位。公司會照顧我們的。」

In much of the world, people whose livelihoods depend on paychecks are increasingly anxious about a potential wave of unemployment threatened by automation. As the frightening tale goes, globalization forced people in wealthier lands like North America and Europe to compete directly with cheaper laborers in Asia and Latin America, sowing joblessness. Now, the robots are coming to finish off the humans.

在世界上的很多地方，靠工資維持生計的人越來越擔心自動化可能會帶來的潛在失業潮。根據駭人的說法，全球化會迫使北美和歐洲等富裕地區的人與亞洲和拉丁美洲的廉價勞動力直接競爭，導致失業問題。現在，機械人要來毀滅人類了。

But such talk has little currency in Sweden or its Scandinavian neighbors, where unions are powerful, government support is abundant, and trust between employers and employees runs deep. Here, robots are just another way to make companies more efficient. As employers prosper, workers have consistently gained a proportionate slice of the spoils — a stark contrast to the United States and Britain, where wages have stagnated even while corporate profits have soared.

但在瑞典或它在斯堪地那維亞半島上的鄰國，這類言論幾乎沒有什麼市場。在這些地方，工會勢力強大，政府支持充足，僱主和僱員相互信任。在這裡，機械人只是提高公司效率的另一種方式。隨著僱主繁榮發展，員工也不斷獲得相應的好處。這與美國和英國形成了鮮明的對比。在美英兩國，儘管企業利潤飆升，但工資水平卻停滯不前。

在博利登礦場這樣的生意中，工會非常強大，政府給予了非常多的支持，僱主與僱員間的信任十分深厚。
在博利登礦場這樣的生意中，工會非常強大，政府給予了非常多的支持，僱主與僱員間的信任十分深厚。 Linus Sundahl-Djerf for The New York Times

“In Sweden, if you ask a union leader, ‘Are you afraid of new technology?’ they will answer, ‘No, I’m afraid of old technology,’” says the Swedish minister for employment and integration, Ylva Johansson. “The jobs disappear, and then we train people for new jobs. We won’t protect jobs. But we will protect workers.”

「在瑞典，如果問工會領袖，『你害怕新技術嗎?』，他們會回答說，『不怕，我害怕老技術，』」瑞典負責就業和一體化的大臣於爾娃·約翰松(Ylva Johansson)說。「工作崗位消失，然後我們會培訓勞動者從事新崗位。我們不會保護工作崗位。但我們會保護勞動者。」

Americans tend to dismiss Nordic countries as a realm of nanny-state-worshipping socialists in contrast to the swashbuckling capitalists who rule in places like Silicon Valley. But Sweden presents the possibility that, in an age of automation, innovation may be best advanced by maintaining ample cushions against failure.

美國人往往對北歐國家不屑一顧，認為那是一個由崇尚保姆式國家的社會主義者，而不是統治矽谷等地的傳奇資本主義者構成的國度。但瑞典卻展示了一種可能性：在自動化時代，最能推動創新的，也許是保持足夠的緩衝應對失敗。

“A good safety net is good for entrepreneurship,” says Carl Melin, policy director at Futurion, a research institution in Stockholm. “If a project doesn’t succeed, you don’t have to go broke.”

「完善的安全保障系統有利於創業，」設在斯德哥爾摩的研究機構Futurion的政策主任卡爾·梅林(Carl Melin)說。「如果項目不成功，你也不用破產。」

瑞典首都斯德哥爾摩。在歐洲委員會進行的一項問卷調查中，80%的瑞典人都對機械人及人工智慧表達了樂觀態度。
瑞典首都斯德哥爾摩。在歐洲委員會進行的一項問卷調查中，80%的瑞典人都對機械人及人工智慧表達了樂觀態度。 Linus Sundahl-Djerf for The New York Times

Eighty percent of Swedes express positive views about robots and artificial intelligence, according to a survey this year by the European Commission. By contrast, a survey by the Pew Research Center found that 72 percent of Americans were “worried” about a future in which robots and computers substitute for humans.

歐盟委員會(European Commission)今年進行的一項調查顯示，80%的瑞典人對機械人和人工智慧持樂觀態度。相比之下，皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)的一項調查發現，72%的美國人對機械人和電腦代替人類的未來感到「擔憂」。

In the United States, where most people depend on employers for health insurance, losing a job can trigger a descent to catastrophic depths. It makes workers reluctant to leave jobs to forge potentially more lucrative careers. It makes unions inclined to protect jobs above all else.

在美國，大部分人依賴僱主提供醫療保險，失業可能會導致生活水平出現災難性的下降。這導致勞動者不願離開工作崗位，去建立可能更賺錢的事業，也讓工會傾向於不顧一切地保護工作崗位。

Yet in Sweden and the rest of Scandinavia, governments provide health care along with free education. They pay generous unemployment benefits, while employers finance extensive job training programs. Unions generally embrace automation as a competitive advantage that makes jobs more secure.

但在瑞典和斯堪地那維亞半島的其他地方，政府提供醫療保健服務和免費的教育。它們會發放高額失業救濟金，同時僱主也會出資開展廣泛的職業培訓。工會往往認為自動化是一種競爭優勢，會讓工作崗位更安全。

Making the United States more like Scandinavia would entail costs that collide with the tax-cutting fervor that has dominated American politics in recent decades.

讓美國更像斯堪地那維亞半島，會帶來與近幾十年來在美國政壇佔主導地位的減稅熱情相矛盾的成本。

1966年的加爾彭貝裡礦場。這個礦場差不多自1257年就開始運行了。
1966年的加爾彭貝裡礦場。這個礦場差不多自1257年就開始運行了。 Boliden

Sweden, Denmark and Finland all spend more than 27 percent of their annual economic output on government services to help jobless people and other vulnerable groups, according to data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The United States devotes less than 20 percent of its economy to such programs.

來自經濟合作與發展組織(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)的數據顯示，瑞典、丹麥和芬蘭在幫助失業人員和其他弱勢群體的政府服務上的支出，均超過年度經濟產出的27%。而美國在這類項目上的投入不到經濟產出的20%。

For Swedish businesses, these outlays yield a key dividend: Employees have proved receptive to absorbing new technology.

對瑞典的企業來說，這些支出帶來了一個關鍵的好處：僱員被證明樂於接受新技術。

“If we don’t move forward with the technology and making money, well, then we are out of business,” says Magnus Westerlund, 35, vice chairman of a local union chapter representing laborers at two Boliden mines. “You don’t need a degree in math to do the calculation.”

「如果我們不推進科技進步賺錢，那麼，我們就要歇業了，」35歲的馬格努斯·韋斯特隆德(Magnus Westerlund)說，他是當地代表著兩個博利登礦場勞工工會的副主席。「你不需要數學學位就能算出來。」

At the mine below the frigid pine forests in Garpenberg, 110 miles northwest of Stockholm, Persson and his co-workers earn about 500,000 krona per year (nearly $60,000). They get five weeks of vacation. Under Swedish law, when a child arrives, the parents have 480 days of family leave to apportion between them. No robot is going to change any of that, Persson says.

在位於斯德哥爾摩西北110英里（約合177公里）外的加爾彭貝裡，寒冷松林下方的礦場裡，佩爾松及其同事每年能掙約50萬克朗（約6萬美元）。他們有五週的假期。根據瑞典法律，在生了孩子後，父母可以分攤480天的家庭假。佩爾松說，任何一個機械人都改變不了這一點。

瑞典馬爾摩聯合機械人的創始人瑟倫·卡爾松。他開發了一款能製作體育新聞的機械人。
瑞典馬爾摩聯合機械人的創始人瑟倫·卡爾松。他開發了一款能製作體育新聞的機械人。 Linus Sundahl-Djerf for The New York Times

“It’s a Swedish kind of thinking,” says Erik Lundstrom, a 41-year-old father of two who works alongside Persson. “If you do something for the company, the company gives something back.”

「這是瑞典的思維邏輯，」41歲的埃里克·倫德斯特倫斯(Erik Lundstrom)說，他是兩個孩子的父親，與佩爾松一起工作。「如果你為公司做了事，公司也要回報你點兒東西。」

That proposition now confronts a formidable test. No one knows how many jobs are threatened by robots and other forms of automation, but projections suggest a potential shock.

這一主張如今面臨著嚴峻考驗。沒人知道有多少工作處在機械人或其他形式自動化的威脅之下，但預測顯示，那是一個潛在的震驚點。

在斯德哥爾摩的一家由僱主提供資金的工作保障委員會會幫助那些失業的人找到新的工作，該委員會宣稱成功率為83%。
在斯德哥爾摩的一家由僱主提供資金的工作保障委員會會幫助那些失業的人找到新的工作，該委員會宣稱成功率為83%。 Linus Sundahl-Djerf for The New York Times

A 2016 study by the World Economic Forum surveyed 15 major economies that collectively hold two-thirds of the global workforce — about 1.86 billion workers — concluding that the rise of robots and artificial intelligence will destroy a net 5.1 million jobs by 2020.

2016年，世界經濟論壇(World Economic Forum)對15個國家進行了問卷調查，這些國家共計佔全球勞動力——約18.6億工人——的三分之二，並且得出結論，認為機械人和人工智慧的崛起將在2020年毀掉510萬個工作崗位。

A pair of Oxford University researchers concluded that nearly half of all American jobs could be replaced by robots and other forms of automation over the next two decades.

兩位牛津大學(Oxford University)的研究人員認為，美國所有工作崗位近半數都可以在未來20年，被機械人及其他形式的自動化代替。

When automated teller machines first landed at bank branches in the late 1960s, some foresaw the extinction of humans working in banks. But employment swelled as banks invested the savings into new areas like mortgage lending and insurance. Similar trends may play out again.

當自動櫃員機在1960年代末首次出現在銀行分支機構時，一些人預測銀行的人類工作會消失。但隨著銀行將儲蓄投資到了抵押貸款和保險這樣的新領域裡，被僱傭的人數大大增加。類似情形可能還會再次出現。

Yet even if robots create more jobs than they eliminate, large numbers of people are going to need to pursue new careers.

然而即使是機械人創造的工作要遠多於它們消滅的工作，仍有大批人會需要追求新的事業。

博利登礦場的工人們歡迎的科技進步包括無線網路和平板電腦。「對我們來說，自動化是好事，」一位當地的工會領導人說。
博利登礦場的工人們歡迎的科技進步包括無線網路和平板電腦。「對我們來說，自動化是好事，」一位當地的工會領導人說。 Linus Sundahl-Djerf for The New York Times

Sweden and its Nordic brethren have proved successful at managing such transitions. Job security councils financed by employers help people who lose jobs find new ones.

在應對此類過渡方面，瑞典及其北歐同胞已經證明自己取得了成功。由僱主提供資金的工作保障委員會會幫助那些失業的人找到新的工作。

Maintaining Sweden’s social safety net also requires that the public continue to pay tax rates approaching 60 percent. Yet as Sweden absorbs large numbers of immigrants from conflict-torn nations, that support may wane. Many lack education and may be difficult to employ. If large numbers wind up depending on government largesse, a backlash could result.

瑞典社會保障體系的維持，同樣也要求公眾繼續繳納接近60%的稅率。然而隨著瑞典接收了大量來自衝突不斷國家的移民，這種支持可能會日漸減退。許多人缺乏教育，可能很難受到僱傭。如果大量移民最後依靠政府慷慨解囊度日，可能會導致出現反彈。

“There’s a risk that the social contract could crack,” said Marten Blix, an economist at the Research Institute of Industrial Economics in Stockholm.

「存在社會契約破裂的風險，」斯德哥爾摩工業經濟研究所(Industrial Economics)的經濟學家馬滕·布利克斯(Marten Blix)說。

For now, the social compact endures, and at the Boliden mine, a sense of calm prevails.

就目前而言，社會契約還維持著。在博利登礦場，氣氛平靜。

https://cn.nytimes.com/business/20171228/the-robots-are-coming-and-sweden-is-fine/zh-hant/dual/